The risk to Australian coastal property just got a price tag, and Western Australia’s share is the largest in the country. A new Climate Council report, Rising Seas, Rising Bills, estimates that sea level rise could cost the nation at least $855 billion by 2100. WA alone faces about $230.5 billion of that bill.
Headlines about WA coastal properties “sinking” are confronting, but the science behind them is sobering. The land isn’t collapsing. The ocean is creeping higher, and the report finds around 267,000 properties nationwide could be damaged or lost by the end of the century.
For anyone who owns, buys or sells near the water, understanding this risk is now part of being an informed property owner. This post breaks down the numbers, explains what is already locked in, and outlines the questions worth asking before your next coastal property decision.
What the Climate Council Report Actually Found
The Rising Seas, Rising Bills report was released on Thursday 10 September 2026 and draws on research from the University of Melbourne. It measures the combined cost of property loss and land-use loss caused by inundation, coastal flooding and erosion between now and 2100.
The headline figures are large by any measure. The table below sets out the national picture.
| Measure | Projected figure |
|---|---|
| Total cost of sea level rise by 2100 | At least $855 billion |
| Property losses | $274.3 billion |
| Land-use losses | $580.7 billion |
| Properties damaged or lost | Around 267,000 |
| Land affected | About 2 million hectares |
| Sea level rise already locked in (next 25 years) | 14 centimetres |
| Mean sea level rise by 2100 (3-degree scenario) | 54 centimetres |
The risk isn’t limited to homes. The report counts residential and commercial property, industrial and agricultural land, nature reserves and critical infrastructure. Even so, it describes its economic estimates as conservative, because they only capture basic land, property and infrastructure costs.
Why WA Coastal Properties Face the Biggest Risk in Australia
Western Australia has the longest coastline of any state, and that geography drives the result. The report puts WA’s projected economic loss by 2100 at $230.5 billion, the highest of any state or territory.
Queensland is next at $214.5 billion, followed by Victoria at $167 billion and New South Wales at $150.7 billion. Every state and the Northern Territory bears a significant cost.
| State or territory | Projected economic loss by 2100 |
|---|---|
| Western Australia | $230.5 billion |
| Queensland | $214.5 billion |
| Victoria | $167 billion |
| New South Wales | $150.7 billion |
| South Australia | $49.2 billion |
| Northern Territory | $35.2 billion |
| Tasmania | $7.9 billion |
WA also ranks third for the number of individual properties exposed. The table below shows the three states with the most homes and other properties in the firing line.
| State | Properties at risk |
|---|---|
| Queensland | 93,157 |
| New South Wales | 71,210 |
| Western Australia | 51,366 |
More than 586,000 hectares of WA land are exposed to rising seas and storm surges. The report also finds that the largest losses of damaged farmland are concentrated in WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland.
“Sinking” Coastal Properties: What Is Really Happening?
Strictly speaking, WA coastal properties aren’t sinking. The water around them is rising. The practical result for an owner is the same, because the gap between the shoreline and the property keeps closing.
Climate Council councillor Dr Andrew Watkins, an adjunct professor at Monash University, explains that each coastline behaves differently. Low-lying coasts suffer the most, and areas only a metre or two above sea level are already vulnerable during major storms. Higher, cliff-top homes face a different kind of exposure.
The danger rarely comes from sea level rise alone. High tides, rising seas and storm surges can combine to push water further inland and multiply the damage. That compounding effect is why even inland areas are affected as creeks and rivers rise.
Professor Tom Kompas, a report co-author from the University of Melbourne, says homeowners would mostly see coastal erosion, mould, landslides and localised flooding. These are slow, costly problems that build up over years rather than arriving as a single disaster.
Four Types of Coastal Property Risk Owners Should Understand
Coastal risk isn’t a single threat. It shows up in several forms, and each one affects a property differently. Understanding the differences helps owners judge their own exposure.
| Type of risk | What it means | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| Permanent inundation | Low-lying land is regularly covered by water | Mean sea level rise |
| Coastal erosion | Shoreline and dunes retreat towards the property | Storms and rising seas |
| Storm surge and flooding | Water pushes further inland during severe weather | Combined tide and surge events |
| Financial risk | Damage isn’t covered by insurance or protection works | “Actions of the sea” exclusions |
The first risk, inundation, is the slowest but the most final. Once land sits below the regular reach of the tide, protection becomes very difficult. The second risk, erosion, is already visible in places such as Inverloch, where beaches and dunes have disappeared within a few years.
Storm surge is the risk most people picture. A severe storm arriving on top of a high tide can send water well beyond the usual shoreline. The report warns that these combined events become far more frequent as seas rise.
The financial risk is the one many owners overlook. A property might survive a storm physically but still leave its owner with a large repair bill that no policy will pay. Reviewing your insurance is one of the simplest ways to manage that risk.
5 Shocking Facts Every WA Coastal Owner Should Know
The report contains plenty of detail. These five findings matter most for anyone weighing up coastal property in Western Australia.
Fact 1: WA Carries the Highest Economic Bill in the Country
At $230.5 billion, WA’s projected loss tops every other state. That figure combines property loss with land-use loss across a very long coastline.
It is a projection to 2100, not a forecast for next year, but the level of risk is hard to ignore. Still, it shows that the coastal risk in this state is national in scale.
Fact 2: 14 Centimetres of Sea Level Rise Is Already Locked In
Based on emissions that have already occurred, 14 centimetres of sea level rise will arrive within the next 25 years. This is the most certain part of the risk, and it can’t be avoided whatever happens next.
The report notes that the actual rise could be higher, especially if emissions aren’t cut deeply enough. Under a 3-degree warming scenario, the mean rise reaches 54 centimetres by 2100.
Fact 3: Every 10 Centimetres Triples Extreme Events
Watkins says that for every 10 centimetres of sea level rise, the number of extreme events roughly triples. These are the events that used to arrive about once every 100 years.
The report estimates that a 54 centimetre rise would make coastal flooding more than 400 times more likely each year across much of the country. That includes the entirety of NSW and much of WA.
Fact 4: Insurance May Not Cover the Damage
Many of the projected losses fall under the category of “actions of the sea”. Insurers exclude tidal inundation, coastal erosion and shoreline movement because they are considered too foreseeable to insure.
This means owners could carry the full cost of damage themselves. The risk isn’t only physical, it is financial, and it sits with the property owner.
Fact 5: A Slow-Building Threat Is Easy to Ignore
Watkins points out that sea level rise is easy to discount when compared with bushfire or flash flooding. Because it builds slowly, the need for solutions can seem less urgent.
That delay is a risk in itself. The longer owners, buyers and planners wait, the fewer affordable options remain.
Warning Signs From Inverloch: A Preview of Erosion Risk
Some coastal communities already show what the future could look like without action. Inverloch, in Victoria’s South Gippsland, has lost more than 70 metres of foreshore since 2012.
Its surf lifesaving club, built in 2010, relies on sandbags to hold back the tide. Dredging has only temporarily held back the sea.
Retired geography teacher Aileen Vening has lived in the area for more than 30 years and has documented the erosion since 2012. She describes the threat as “imminent” rather than distant. In August 2024, a single event stripped about 18 metres of beach from the western end of the Surf Beach, and she says 80 per cent of the vegetated dunes have been lost.
The town’s lifesaving tower has been moved back from the shore several times and was eventually abandoned. Vening believes it is a warning that retreat, meaning moving homes and the town further inland, could become a reality if emissions aren’t reduced.
Inverloch is in Victoria, not Western Australia. But it shows how quickly a coastal risk can turn from a projection into a lived experience.
Who Pays When Coastal Properties Are Damaged?
The report’s central warning is about cost. Once damage occurs, someone has to pay, and right now that burden falls largely on everyday property owners.
The Insurance Council of Australia estimates at least $30 billion is needed for large-scale coastal protection and adaptation projects over the next 50 years alone. The report also highlights a seawall on the NSW Central Coast that would protect 40 houses. The project remains unbuilt because of a dispute over who should fund the $40 million cost.
Australia’s 537 local councils have voted unanimously that fossil fuel companies should help cover these costs. Whatever your view on that, the example shows how unsettled the question of responsibility remains.
| Who could bear the cost | What the report says |
|---|---|
| Property owners | Largely carry the burden today, especially where insurance excludes “actions of the sea” |
| Governments | Can avoid some costs by stopping development in vulnerable areas and managing retreat |
| Local councils | Face pressure over seawalls and coastal protection funding |
| Industry | Councils have called for fossil fuel companies to contribute |
What Experts Recommend: Planning, Retreat and No-Build Zones
The Climate Council recommends planning and managing retreat from the most vulnerable areas. It also proposes designating “no build” zones to preserve existing shoreline from future erosion.
Physical protection such as sea walls, and even natural restoration, is treated as a costly last resort. Watkins stresses that none of these options is easy, and that all need careful consideration and a long planning period.
He also says sea level rise is only one part of a changing climate. His overall message is that emissions need to reach net zero as fast as possible to halt further warming.
What This Coastal Property Risk Means for Perth Owners and Buyers
The report doesn’t estimate how individual property values will move, and it doesn’t replace suburb-level flood or erosion mapping. Nobody should read it as a prediction for the price of a particular home. What it does offer is a clear signal that coastal exposure deserves proper due diligence.
If you own or are considering a property near the ocean, a river or a creek, there are practical questions worth asking. The checklist below is a starting point.
| Question to ask | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| How high above sea level is the property? | Low-lying land is more vulnerable to storm surge and flooding |
| Has the nearby shoreline eroded in recent years? | Past erosion is a strong indicator of future movement |
| Does the insurance policy exclude “actions of the sea”? | Many coastal losses may not be covered |
| What does the local council say about coastal planning? | Planning rules can affect future development and protection works |
| Are there existing or proposed sea walls or dune works? | Protection measures can be costly and contested |
| How exposed is the property to combined events? | High tides plus storm surge can push water well inland |
Buyers should ask these questions before making an offer to gauge the risk. Sellers benefit from knowing the answers too, because informed buyers may ask them.
For owners, the goal isn’t panic. It is to understand your level of risk, check your insurance and stay across what your local council is planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are WA coastal properties really sinking?
No. The land is not physically sinking. Sea levels are rising, and the report projects that this will damage or destroy coastal properties over the coming decades.
How much sea level rise is already locked in?
The report says 14 centimetres of rise is locked in within the next 25 years, based on past emissions. Further increases depend on how quickly emissions fall.
Which state faces the greatest economic risk?
Western Australia faces the greatest risk of economic loss, at about $230.5 billion by 2100. Queensland has the most individual properties at risk, with 93,157.
Will my home insurance cover coastal erosion?
Often not. The report notes that “actions of the sea”, including tidal inundation, erosion and shoreline movement, are commonly excluded. Check your policy documents carefully and speak with your insurer.
Does this only affect beachfront homes?
No. Rising seas, high tides and storm surge can push water into inland areas as creeks and rivers rise. The exposure is broader than the beachfront alone.
Talk to Holdsworth Real Estate About Your Coastal Property
Whether you are thinking of selling a coastal home, buying near the water, or simply wondering where your property sits given this new report, the team at Holdsworth Real Estate can help. We can provide a current market appraisal and talk through what this risk could mean for your position. Contact Holdsworth Real Estate today to start the conversation.
